Growth plan for Olive & Piper, 2 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
One number to protect: a target CAC of $24.96. Olive & Piper already has the Sage Jewelry Set at 82.00 CAD against a 116.00 list, free shipping over $50US, and a catalog of earrings, rings and cuffs. Creators and tests turn that into ads.
- Target CAC
- $24.96
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
Hold target CAC at $24.96 while spend scales
The number is target CAC: $24.96. It is 0.6 of a $41.60 ceiling, built from a $52 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order. Those inputs are my guesses until I see your data. Spend scales only while new customers cost less than that.
Protect
Target CAC: $24.96 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $52 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $41.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $41.60 = $24.96. Across the ranges: $4.20 to $159.30.
Three moves
- Kill losers early: one variable per test, so a weak Sloane Earrings hook dies before it eats budget.
- Match each ad to a landing page, so the Sage set story and the free-shipping line carry through to checkout.
- Report daily CAC, and cut spend the day it crosses the guard line of $24.96.
- Free shipping threshold for US orders
- $50US
- Published
- Free shipping threshold for orders to Canada
- $65CA
- Published
- Sage Jewelry Set (Set of 2) price, against a 116.00 list price
- 82.00 CAD
- Published
02 Variety
Earrings, rings and cuffs give each ad a different job
Each ad concept has to carry one job: a gift moment, a ring stack, a bundle, a price drop. Olive & Piper has rings in ten variants, studs at 38.00 CAD, a Sage set at 82.00 CAD and a Gift Box at 8.00 CAD, so the creative can vary without leaving the catalog.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| A stud with a point of view | Everything you love about a timeless stud, with a point of view all its own. | 4 |
| Easy returns, 30 days to try | With 30 days to try, you don't need to worry | 4 |
| Ships in 1-2 days | In stock orders ship in 1-2 days | 3 |
| Hypoallergenic, nickel free | Hypoallergenic and nickel free | 2 |
| Free shipping over $50US | FREE Shipping over $50US | 2 |
| Shine now, Pay Later | Pay in instalments with flexible payment options | 2 |
| Women-run, Vancouver | Support a Vancouver women-run small business | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, from shipping thresholds to discounted rings
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The $50US and $65CA free-shipping lines may push buyers to pad baskets or abandon carts | Med | Med | Your team | Average order stays near the plan guess for two straight weeks |
| Marked-down pieces like Simone Ring at 39.00 CAD pull buyers toward discounts, not full price | Med | Med | Both | Discounted items stay under half of ad-driven orders |
| Purchase events are incomplete, so daily CAC can't be trusted | High | High | Your team | Events match store orders before spend passes $3,000 |
| Many similar earring styles make concepts blur and split spend | Med | Med | Me | Each concept names one product and one job; duplicates are cut |
| Creator videos draw views but not purchases | Med | High | Me | Cut any creator whose videos miss the $24.96 CAC after the first test round |
| Ad lines outrun what the product pages say about materials and size | Med | High | Your team | Every ad line traces to a product page line before launch |
| Landing pages lag behind creators, so good videos send traffic to a weak page | Low | Med | Both | No concept gets budget until its own landing page is live |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $41.60; the guard line is $24.96
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $52 (range $8.00–$118.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $41.60 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $24.96 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $52 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $41.60. Guard line = 0.6 × $41.60 = $24.96. Across the ranges: $4.20 to $159.30.
Range across the assumptions: $4 to $159.
The $41.60 ceiling uses a $52 order, 40% margin and one repeat order: all guesses. $24.96 is 0.6 of it. Week one replaces them with your real order value and margin.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Six weeks of tests, $24,000 before we scale
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $25 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $25 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $25 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $25 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $25 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $25 |
Six weeks, Proposed. Weeks one and two run 12 ads at $250 each, $6,000 together. Weeks three and four run 12–20 ads, $4,000 each. Weeks five and six run 20 ads, $5,000 each. Tests total $24,000, then spend follows what survives.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
From Elora Drops to Iona Ring, more concepts find more winners
More concepts means more shots at a winner. In the plan, 20 concepts yield 2 winners worth $18,000 in added spend; 80 concepts yield 8 worth $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are guesses, not facts.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
Most of the $100,000 follows winners on Meta
- Winning ads scaled on Meta
- $45,000
- 45%
- Test ads across earrings, rings and cuffs
- $25,000
- 25%
- Creator pay and product seeding
- $20,000
- 20%
- Landing pages for the Sage set and rings
- $10,000
- 10%
The split covers the $100,000 budget, Proposed; test spend stays near $24,000 and the rest follows winners.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, because the $50US free-shipping line needs reach
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | From the first week, with Sage set and free-shipping hooks | Creator videos become testable ads here, fast. |
| TikTok | Once creators are live and their videos land near the $24.96 CAC | Try-on ring and earring videos suit short-form feeds. |
| After Meta shows which earrings hold CAC | Gift and stacking ideas fit timeless, versatile pieces. | |
| Google Search | After purchase events are clean | Shoppers searching earrings or rings by name are close to buying. |
| When first orders flow and repeat orders can be measured | The payback rule depends on repeat orders. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
A $25 CAC pays back; a $45 CAC never does
Payback is the real constraint. By the PLAN rule, CAC $10 leaves $31.60 on the first order. CAC $25 pays back after repeat orders, $16.60 left. CAC $45 never pays back, −$3.40, so we stop. CAC $60 is −$18.40. Free shipping over $50US sits inside that math.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $20.80, $41.60.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 | $20.80 | $41.60 | $31.60 | First order |
| $25 | $20.80 | $41.60 | $16.60 | After repeat orders |
| $45 | $20.80 | $41.60 | −$3.40 | Never: stop |
| $60 | $20.80 | $41.60 | −$18.40 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $10: $41.60 − $10 = $31.60 left; pays back: First order; CAC $25: $41.60 − $25 = $16.60 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $45: $41.60 − $45 = −$3.40 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $60: $41.60 − $60 = −$18.40 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
I cover creative and creators; your team owns shop and events
Covers
- Ad concepts, hook library and weekly tests across earrings, rings and cuffs
- Creator recruiting, briefs and a posting schedule
- Landing pages that carry the Sage set and free-shipping offers
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings, monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build: I spec it, your team ships it
- Product photography and the shop theme
- Customer service and shipping within 1-3 business days
- Product, pricing and margin decisions
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Purchase events match store orders and at least one concept beats the $24.96 guard line | Events still don't match orders, or no ad lands near $24.96 |
| Day 30 | CAC at or under $24.96 on tested winners, with spend rising each week | CAC above $41.60 on every winner |
| Day 60 | Blended CAC holds $24.96 while spend climbs and repeat orders show in cohorts | CAC sits above $41.60 for two straight weeks |
| Day 90 | Cohort payback fits the repeat-order rule with CAC at or under $24.96 | Cohorts show CAC never paying back, as at $45 |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | Sage set at 82.00 CAD against a 116.00 list price | No hook library yet | 1st |
| creators | Elora Drops and Walker Studs photos on the site | No creator roster yet | 2nd |
| claims sheet | Weights per pair, such as 0.30 oz on Walker Studs | Materials claims to check before ads | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Free shipping over $50US shown on the site | One page per concept | 2nd |
| reporting | US and Canada free-shipping thresholds to track | Daily CAC on clean purchase events | 1st |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| $50US Free shipping threshold for US orders | https://www.oliveandpiper.com/en-intl/products/the-occasion-hat | Fact |
| $65CA Free shipping threshold for orders to Canada | https://www.oliveandpiper.com/en-intl/products/the-occasion-hat | Fact |
| 82.00 CAD Sage Jewelry Set (Set of 2) price, against a 116.00 list price | https://www.oliveandpiper.com/products/sage-jewelry-set | Fact |
| Product prices $8.00–$118.00 | product prices in the site product data (139 products), read 2026-10-02 | Fact |
| $52 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $24.96 target CAC | 0.6 of the $41.60 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $41.60 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read your claims sheet, brief the first two creators on Elora Drops and Walker Studs, write twelve ads against the Sage set and free-shipping hooks, and spec the purchase events with your team.
